ASSIGNMENT 2 – PART 2 (MKTG127) Assignment 2 – Part 2 MKTG127 DEMOGRAPHIC FUNDAMENTALS Data Analysis and Interpretation (Due Date: Week 12 – Thursday, 2 Nov 2017, 5 pm) Overview In this assignment, students will work on data analysis questions. The answers should include its working steps. Any correct answers without its working out will not be given a full mark. This assignment focuses on mortality/standardisation and population projection. Students must complete it independently. Penalties for cheating can be severe. Marks for each question are given in square brackets. The maximum credit for this assignment will be 12.5% of the total for the unit. Submission The hardcopy of assignment should be submitted to your tutor at the tutorial time. It should have a cover sheet which could be downloaded from the iLearn. The softcopy of your assignment should be uploaded to iLearn on the same submission day. No limit of maximum length of the answer to each question (Q1 and Q2). Q1. Mortality and Standardisation [40 Marks] The estimated numbers of population by age on 30/6/2015 and the number of death in 2015 for China and for Germany are given in the following table: Age x China Germany Population Death (N) Population Death (N) 0-9 158,600,000 196,390 6,820,000 2,830 10-19 161,490,000 47,100 7,610,000 1,120 20-29 229,640,000 135,680 9,430,000 3,090 30-39 193,590,000 187,890 9,650,000 5,660 40-49 236,690,000 454,130 11,780,000 17,500 50-59 174,900,000 897,920 12,990,000 57,600 60-69 127,360,000 2,171,550 9,490,000 100,020 70-79 60,350,000 3,010,070 8,370,000 220,070 80+ 24,870,000 3,453,080 4,710,000 535,300 Total 1,367,490,000 10,553,810 80,850,000 943,190 Using the mortality data provided previously, answer the following questions: a. Estimate the age specific death rates (ASDR, per 1000 pop.) and crude death rates (CDR, per 1000 pop.) for Chinese population and for German population in 2015. Note: use 3 decimal places (dcp.) for the ASDR and CDR. 2 ASSIGNMENT 2 – PART 2 (MKTG127) b. Using the 2015 China population as the standard population, calculate the indirectly standardised death rates (I-SDR) for German population and for Chinese population (Note: use 3 dcp. decimal point for I-SDR). c. If the standardised mortality ratio (SMR) for German population is estimated 2.20 and for Chinese population is estimated 1.00. Using the 2015 Chinese population as the standard population, what are the new values of the indirectly standardised mortality rates (I-SDR) for German population and for Chinese population? d. Using the results from questions 1.a. and 1.b, discuss and comment on the differences in the mortality parameters (CDR and I-SDR) and patterns of Chinese and German population. Please justify if we do need to use a standardisation method or not and what are the possible reasons for this. Q2. Fertility and Population Projection [60 Marks] The estimated numbers of females in China and in German by age on 30/6/2015 and age-specific fertility rates – ASFR (per 1000) in 2015 are presented in the following table: Age (x) China Germany Number of females on 30/06/2015 ASFR in 2015 (per 1000) Number of females on 30/06/2015 ASFR in 2015 (per 1000) 0-4 37,340,000 1,660,000 5-9 35,700,000 1,660,000 10-14 34,370,000 1,750,000 15-19 40,070,000 2.3 1,960,000 11.0 20-24 48,550,000 133.5 2,150,000 53.4 25-29 62,370,000 143.6 2,490,000 90.9 30-34 48,880,000 48.5 2,440,000 79.0 35-39 45,710,000 9.9 2,350,000 30.1 40-44 56,660,000 1.7 2,500,000 4.6 45-49 59,320,000 0.5 3,310,000 0.2 50-54 48,470,000 3,440,000 55-59 37,530,000 3,000,000 60-64 37,760,000 2,680,000 65-69 25,780,000 2,190,000 70-74 17,670,000 2,260,000 75-79 13,470,000 2,300,000 80+ 14,390,000 2,990,000 Total 664,040,000 41,130,000 3 ASSIGNMENT 2 – PART 2 (MKTG127) Some values from the Lx and Tx columns of an abridged life table (l0 = 100,000) for Chinese females and German females (2015) are presented in the following table: Age x China Age x Germany 5Lx Tx 5Lx Tx 0 495,419 7,763,261 0 498,467 8,335,270 5 494,605 7,267,842 5 498,210 7,836,802 10 493,945 6,773,238 10 498,019 7,338,592 15 493,324 6,279,293 15 497,753 6,840,573 20 492,428 5,785,969 20 497,346 6,342,820 25 491,243 5,293,541 25 496,865 5,845,475 30 489,708 4,802,298 30 496,233 5,348,610 35 487,728 4,312,590 35 495,264 4,852,376 40 485,015 3,824,862 40 493,715 4,357,112 45 481,116 3,339,847 45 491,112 3,863,397 50 475,173 2,858,731 50 486,609 3,372,286 55 465,428 2,383,558 55 479,211 2,885,676 60 448,247 1,918,129 60 467,226 2,406,465 65 417,892 1,469,882 65 450,364 1,939,240 70 368,827 1,051,990 70 426,454 1,488,876 75 297,670 683,163 75 387,031 1,062,423 80 207,413 385,493 80 319,380 675,392 85 178,080 85 356,011 Using the data provided previously, select one out of two countries: China or Germany, and answer the following questions: a. For your selected population (i.e. China or Germany) calculate: i. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2015. [5 Marks] iii. The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) in 2015, assuming the sex ratio at birth is 112 for Chinese population or 106 for German population, and female mortality is described by the 2015 life tables for each country. Selected values from the Tx column of the life tables are presented previously (where l0 = 100,000). (Note: Use 3 dcp. for TFR and NRR). [10 Marks] b. For your selected country (i.e. China or Germany), project the female population from 2015 to 2020 with the following assumptions: ï‚· Female mortality is constant at the levels described by the 2015 female life table, ï‚· Fertility in 2020 o For China, it declines by 10% from its level in 2015 levels o For Germany, it declines by 5% from its level in 2015 levels ï‚· The sex ratio at birth is assumed 112 males per 100 females for China, or 106 males per 100 females for Germany. ï‚· The additions of population in 2020 are also affected by net female migration as provided in the next table. [35 Marks] 4 ASSIGNMENT 2 – PART 2 (MKTG127) c. Write a paragraph describing and accounting for the changes in the female population of your selected country between 2015 and 2020 shown by your projection. You may describe how is the total number of females projected to change, which age groups are projected to increase and which to decrease, which are projected to increase or decrease by the greatest amounts, what are the components of the projected growth, and how can relative cohort sizes account for the changes by age group. [10 Marks] For China, you may use the following template for presenting the projection results: Age (x) Number of females on 30/06/2015 Proportion Surviving x ïƒ x+5 Projected Female pop. before Migration Net Migrants in 2020 Projected Female Population in 2020 0-4 37,340,000 13,451 5-9 35,700,000 14,934 10-14 34,370,000 18,477 15-19 40,070,000 24,970 20-24 48,550,000 33,890 25-29 62,370,000 39,825 30-34 48,880,000 38,261 35-39 45,710,000 32,214 40-44 56,660,000 23,742 45-49 59,320,000 16,163 50-54 48,470,000 11,265 55-59 37,530,000 9,254 60-64 37,760,000 8,680 65-69 25,780,000 3,654 70-74 17,670,000 2,521 75-79 13,470,000 670 80+ 14,390,000 207 Total 664,040,000 Note: Use 5 decimal places for proportion surviving (x ïƒ x+5) Use 0 decimal places for the projected population. 5 ASSIGNMENT 2 – PART 2 (MKTG127) For Germany, you may use the following template for presenting the projection results: Age (x) Number of females on 30/06/2015 Proportion Surviving x ïƒ x+5 Projected Female pop. before Migration Net Migrants in 2020 Projected Female Population in 2020 0-4 1,660,000 42,000 5-9 1,660,000 76,190 10-14 1,750,000 124,370 15-19 1,960,000 182,020 20-24 2,150,000 259,210 25-29 2,490,000 395,570 30-34 2,440,000 499,760 35-39 2,350,000 523,600 40-44 2,500,000 489,420 45-49 3,310,000 398,600 50-54 3,440,000 306,140 55-59 3,000,000 214,560 60-64 2,680,000 135,350 65-69 2,190,000 102,420 70-74 2,260,000 69,120 75-79 2,300,000 38,350 80+ 2,990,000 31,790 Total 41,130,000 Note: Use 5 decimal places for proportion surviving (x ïƒ x+5) Use 0 decimal places for the projected population.